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April 19, 1998
INSECURITY IN SOUTH LEBANON While diplomats, politicians and military strategists debate... ...whether the Israeli government will make good on its suggestion of pulling its forces out of South Lebanon, Hussan Sali, for one, is not getting his hopes up. An agricultural engineer and father of two, Hassan lives 10 kilometers as the shell flies from Israel's border with Lebanon, but only one kilometer from the nearest firing post of the Israeli-backed militia known as the South Lebanon Army. "The United Nations told the Israelis to get out of this area 20 years ago," he tells me, referring to the passage of UN resolution 425. "But year after year, they stay. So I don't believe them now." Since their first incursion into Lebanese territory in 1978, Israel has insisted that the threat posed by terrorists to its northern border has made an ongoing military presence imperative. But recently the Netanyahu cabinet floated the possibility that it may soon be time to disengage and withdraw. However conditions, such as demanding a guarantee from Lebanese leaders of security for northern Israel, have been dismissed out of hand, both by the government in Beirut and its powerful mentor, Syria. President Assad is demanding an Israeli withdrawal, too, from the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 war. But on the ground in the village of Haddatha, Hassan and his neighbours say artillery shells have been much more convincing than speculation over which regional power will make the next move. Last week, a 155mm round fired from Israel smashed into the mosque next door. The Sali family's old Mercedes sedan and the back wall of the house were sprayed with shrapnel and debris. Hassan says he's not moving, even though 80% of the village's population has long since fled. "That would be like surrendering our place here, and we have nowhere else to go." Of the Hizballah guerrillas whose attacks Israel blames for provoking return fire from its army and the SLA, Hassan seems somewhat ambivalent. While it's true, he says, that they engage the Israelis, this is because they're the only force resisting the occupation of South Lebanon. He admits he has little time for the more radical parts of the Hizballah platform, but broadly supports their campaign against "the invaders." Many diplomatic and military analysts in the Middle East agree that Hizballah's increasing effectiveness in the field and greater sophistication in expressing the movement's political agenda have, more than any other factors, caused a genuine desire among Israeli citizens and politicians to leave South Lebanon behind. Once slaughtered at a rate of 10 casualties for every Israeli soldier killed, Hizballah forces have sharpened their capabilities in this bloody contest, and in recent months have been inflicting casualties nearly equal to those meted out by their Israeli-SLA adversaries. Much more important, they've changed their image -- at least in the eyes of much of the Arab world -- from a terrorist organization to a much more legitimate resistance force. Although still supported by Iran, Hizballah have become respected players on the political scene in Lebanon. Some western diplomats speak of a probability that the party will restrain its fighters from any flagrant violations of Israel's northern border in future -- provided they can achieve a full and unconditional withdrawal of their sworn enemy. "The sticking point is the Golan Heights," says one veteran diplomatic observer in Damascus. "Syria can't allow the Netanyahu government to just walk out of South Lebanon and into the sunset, because they'd be turning their backs as well on the prospect of ever handing back the Golan. South Lebanon is the only place Israel is forced to focus on the Syrian track, on Assad's strategic goals. Why should he allow Hizballah to disengage ?" And with some 30,000 Syrian troops in Lebanon, and more important, perhaps as many as 1 million workers and residents in the country, the Assad government is crucial to any settlement. Which along with all the other complications of this bitter, convoluted struggle leaves Lt. Col. Colm Doyle and his 550-man 82nd Irish Infantry Battalion less than thrilled about their prospects in the coming days and weeks. As part of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, they monitor a 100-square kilometer tract of South Lebanon, including Hassan's village. A very good day for Lt. Col. Doyle and his men is a day with no exchanges of fire; a reasonable day is when Israeli officials call up with an "activity warning." That means triggers are about to be pulled. Hizballah don't issue warnings, though they have, of late, taken to respecting the U.N.'s demand that they not fire on SLA or Israeli targets from within 500 meters of U.N. positions. But there are bad days, says Lt. Col. Doyle, when everything falls apart, like the afternoon two weeks ago when he noticed Hizballah fighters positioning an anti-aircraft gun on a ridge about one kilometer north of his base. "They fired directly over our heads at some Israeli helicopter gunships in the distance. The Israelis didn't fire back, but Hizballah kept the tracers going all night, just streaming red right over our bunkers all night long." He grins darkly and says he plans to bring the incident to Hizballah's attention at his battalion's next bi-weekly meeting with the group's representatives. Though he has no such regular discussions with his Israeli counterpart, Lt. Col. Doyle is convinced that for officers and men on that side, too, the South Lebanon experience is not a happy one. "It's dangerous -- there's not much that can be accomplished, but a lot that can go wrong." As it did for Israel exactly two years ago at the U.N. base in Qaana, a few kilometers from the Irish battalion's headquarters. Some 106 civilians sheltering there from Israeli air strikes and artillery barrages during the operation known as "Grapes of Wrath" were killed when the buildings they were in were struck by 155mm cannon shells fired from Israel. This year, massive commemorations are planned to mark the second anniversary of the tragedy, and this just days before the 50th anniversary of the founding of the state of Israel. Dates such as these evoke wildly conflicting passions either side of the Lebanese-Israeli border, and the question hangs over these green hills: will these occasions be marked by further violence ? For peacekeepers and would-be peacemakers alike, it's days like this that most clearly reveal South Lebanon for what it is -- everyone's insecurity zone. |
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